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双语外刊

Theworld ahead 2024

世界展望2024

The fight to control the headset market will intensify

头显市场争霸战将愈演愈烈

They are the next big tech platform

它们是下一个大技术平台

THE MOST eagerly awaited gadget of 2024 is Apple’s Vision Pro, a sleek headset that can transport users to the middle of a “Star Wars” battlefield, or simply project the world’s biggest Excel spreadsheet into their office. The magic goggles combine virtual reality (VR) with “mixed reality”, using front-mounted cameras to show the user a live video-feed of the outside world, onto which computer graphics can be superimposed. The device is controlled with eye movements and hand gestures. Apple calls it the most ambitious product it has ever made. At $3,499 its price is ambitious, too.

2024年最受期待的电子产品是苹果的Vision Pro。这款时尚的头显可将用户带至“星球大战”战场的中心，或将世界上最大的Excel电子表格投影到他们的办公室里。这款神奇的眼镜把虚拟现实（VR）与“混合现实”结合起来，使用前置摄像头向用户展示外部世界的实时视频，并可在其上叠加计算机图形。该设备用眼球移动和手势控制。苹果说它是该公司史上最宏伟大胆的产品——它3499美元的定价也是。

Apple will be jostling for consumers’ attention with various rivals. Chief among them is Meta, formerly known as Facebook, which had a big hit with its Quest 2 headset during covid-19 lockdowns, when the metaverse was briefly more enjoyable than real life. It launched an upgraded Quest 3 late in 2023, offering mixed reality. The Quest 3 is more basic than Apple’s device, but at $499 will outsell it. Fancier models will follow.

苹果将与各种竞争对手争夺消费者的注意力。首当其冲的是Meta（原Facebook），该公司在疫情封锁期间推出的Quest 2头显大受欢迎，当时元宇宙一度变得比现实生活还有趣。它于2023年末推出升级版Quest 3，提供混合现实功能。Quest 3比苹果的设备更基础，但因售价仅499美元，销量会更大。之后还会推出更高级的版本。

Google may re-enter the headset race. A decade ago it launched camera-toting smart specs called Google Glass, which flopped. Plans for high-tech glasses called Iris seem to have gone the same way. Its latest gambit is a partnership with Samsung, a South Korean giant, and Qualcomm, an American chipmaker. The three are working on a mixed-reality project which may produce a headset.

谷歌可能会重新加入头显竞赛。十年前，它推出了名为谷歌眼镜的带摄像头的智能眼镜，但以失败告终。名为Iris的高科技眼镜计划似乎再度折戟。它的最新招数是与韩国巨头三星和美国芯片制造商高通合作。三家公司正在开发一个混合现实项目，可能会带来一款头显。

Smaller firms are creating their own niches. Valve, an American video-game company, makes VR headsets for gamers, as does Pico, a Chinese-owned VR firm. Pico’s parent company, Bytedance, also owns TikTok, an app that has aroused suspicion in America—a situation that might make it hard to sell a device that tracks your eyeballs.

较小的公司正在创造自己的利基市场。美国视频游戏公司Valve为游戏玩家生产VR耳机，中国的VR公司Pico也一样。Pico的母公司字节跳动还拥有TikTok，这款应用在美国引发质疑，这种局面可能会导致Pico很难销售一款追踪眼球的设备。

Don’t expect any headset to take the world by storm just yet. Worldwide sales of video headgear will grow by a third in 2024, but will still total only 18m units, forecasts Omdia, a market-research company. (Smartphone sales will exceed 1bn.) Apple’s Vision Pro will probably sell fewer than 200,000 units, because of supply constraints on components, as well as the price tag. It “will be a hit with developers in 2024 and then consumers in 2025”, predicts Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities, an investment company.

目前还不要期待哪款头显能够席卷全球。市场研究公司Omdia预测，在2024年，视频头戴设备的全球销量将增长三分之一，但总量将仍仅为1800万套。（智能手机销量将超过10亿部。）苹果的Vision Pro由于零部件供应限制以及价格高昂，销售量可能不会超过20万部。投资公司韦德布什证券（Wedbush Securities）的丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）预测，它“将在2024年大受开发者的欢迎，然后在2025年走向消费者”。

The thing to watch in 2024 is what those developers find to do with the device. Smartphones took off only after the launch of apps that turned internet-connected phones from novelties into vital everyday tools. Headsets, used mostly for gaming, still lack compelling use cases for most people. But as programmers begin to play around with the Vision Pro, that could change. In the months ahead, tech-watchers will have their eyes on Apple’s new gadget—and it will have its four internal cameras looking right back at them.■

2024年值得关注的事情是那些开发人员发现可以拿Vision Pro干什么。智能手机真正风靡世界要等到各种应用出现之后，这些应用把联网的手机从一件新奇玩意变成了不可或缺的日常工具。头显目前主要用于游戏，仍缺乏让大多数人感觉不可或缺的用例。但如果程序员开始捣弄Vision Pro了，情况可能就会有变化。未来几个月里，科技观察者将把目光投向苹果的新设备——而它的四个内置摄像头也会径直回望他们。